Climate change amplifies the interactions between wind and bark beetle disturbances in forest landscapes

Abstract in dt. Sprache nicht verfügbarContext Growing evidence suggests that climate change could substantially alter forest disturbances. Interactions between individual disturbance agents are a major component of disturbance regimes, yet how interactions contribute to their climate sensitivity remains largely unknown. Objectives Here, our aim was to assess the climate sensitivity of disturbance interactions, focusing on wind and bark beetle disturbances. Methods We developed a process-based model of bark beetle disturbance, integrated into the dynamic forest landscape model iLand (already including a detailed model of wind disturbance). We evaluated the integrated model against observations from three wind events and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak, affecting 530.2 ha (3.8 %) of a mountain forest landscape in Austria between 2007 and 2014. Subsequently, we conducted a factorial experiment determining the effect of changes in climate variables on the area disturbed by wind and bark beetles separately and in combination. Results iLand was well able to reproduce observations with regard to area, temporal sequence, and spatial pattern of disturbance. The observed disturbance dynamics was strongly driven by interactions, with 64.3 % of the area disturbed attributed to interaction effects. A +4 C warming increased the disturbed area by +264.7 % and the area-weighted mean patch size by +1794.3 %. Interactions were found to have a ten times higher sensitivity to temperature changes than main effects, considerably amplifying the climate sensitivity of the disturbance regime. Conclusions Disturbance interactions are a key component of the forest disturbance regime. Neglecting interaction effects can lead to a substantial underestimation of the climate change sensitivity of disturbance regimes.(VLID)164896

Empirical analysis shows reduced cost data collection may be an efficient method in economic clinical trials

BACKGROUND: Data collection for economic evaluation alongside clinical trials is burdensome and cost-intensive. Limiting both the frequency of data collection and recall periods can solve the problem. As a consequence, gaps in survey periods arise and must be filled appropriately. The aims of our study are to assess the validity of incomplete cost data collection and define suitable resource categories. METHODS: In the randomised KORINNA study, cost data from 234 elderly patients were collected quarterly over a 1-year period. Different strategies for incomplete data collection were compared with complete data collection. The sample size calculation was modified in response to elasticity of variance. RESULTS: Resource categories suitable for incomplete data collection were physiotherapy, ambulatory clinic in hospital, medication, consultations, outpatient nursing service and paid household help. Cost estimation from complete and incomplete data collection showed no difference when omitting information from one quarter. When omitting information from two quarters, costs were underestimated by 3.9% to 4.6%. With respect to the observed increased standard deviation, a larger sample size would be required, increased by 3%. Nevertheless, more time was saved than extra time would be required for additional patients. CONCLUSION: Cost data can be collected efficiently by reducing the frequency of data collection. This can be achieved by incomplete data collection for shortened periods or complete data collection by extending recall windows. In our analysis, cost estimates per year for ambulatory healthcare and non-healthcare services in terms of three data collections was as valid and accurate as a four complete data collections. In contrast, data on hospitalisation, rehabilitation stays and care insurance benefits should be collected for the entire target period, using extended recall windows. When applying the method of incomplete data collection, sample size calculation has to be modified because of the increased standard deviation. This approach is suitable to enable economic evaluation with lower costs to both study participants and investigators. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial registration number is ISRCTN0289374

The effects of forest cover and disturbance on torrential hazards

Global human population growth, limited space for settlements and a booming tourism industry have led to a strong increase of human infrastructure in mountain regions. As this infrastructure is highly exposed to natural hazards, a main role of mountain forests is to regulate the environment and reduce hazard probability. However, canopy disturbances are increasing in many parts of the world, potentially threatening the protection function of forests. Yet, large-scale quantitative evidence on the influence of forest cover and disturbance on natural hazards remains scarce to date. Here we quantified the effects of forest cover and disturbance on the probability and frequency of torrential hazards for 10 885 watersheds in the Eastern Alps. Torrential hazard occurrences were derived from a comprehensive database documenting 3768 individual debris flow and flood events between 1986 and 2018. Forest disturbances were mapped from Landsat satellite time series analysis. We found evidence that forests reduce the probability of natural hazards, with a 25 percentage point increase in forest cover decreasing the probability of torrential hazards by 8.7%± 1.2%. Canopy disturbances generally increased the probability of torrential hazard events, with the regular occurrence of large disturbance events being the most detrimental disturbance regime for natural hazards. Disturbances had a bigger effect on debris flows than on flood events, and press disturbances were more detrimental than pulse disturbances. We here present the first large scale quantification of forest cover and disturbance effects on torrential hazards. Our findings highlight that forests constitute important green infrastructure in mountain landscapes, efficiently reducing the probability of natural hazards, but that increasing forest disturbances can weaken the protective function of forests.Austrian Climate Research ProgramAustrian Science Fund https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002428Peer Reviewe

Nurse-based case management for aged patients with myocardial infarction: study protocol of a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Aged patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) have a high prevalence of co-morbidity associated with poor quality of life, high health care costs, and increased risk for adverse outcomes. These patients are often lacking an optimal home care which may result in subsequent readmissions. However, a specific case management programme for elderly patients with myocardial infarction (MI) is not yet available. The objective of this trial is to examine the effectiveness of a nurse-based case management in patients aged 65 years and older discharged after treatment of an acute MI in hospital. The programme is expected to influence patient readmission, mortality and quality of life, and thus to reduce health care costs compared with usual care. In this paper the study protocol is described. METHODS/DESIGN: The KORINNA (Koronarinfarkt Nachbehandlung im Alter) study is designed as a single-center randomized two-armed parallel group trial. KORINNA is conducted in the framework of KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg). Patients assigned to the intervention group receive a nurse-based follow-up for one year including home visits and telephone calls. Key elements of the intervention are to detect problems or risks, to give advice regarding a broad range of aspects of disease management and to refer to the general practitioner, if necessary. The control group receives usual care. Twelve months after the index hospitalization all patients are re-assessed. The study has started in September 2008. According to sample size estimation a total number of 338 patients will be recruited. The primary endpoint of the study is time to first readmission to hospital or out of hospital death. Secondary endpoints are functional status, participation, quality of life, compliance, and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. For the economic evaluation cost data is retrospectively assessed by the patients. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) will be calculated. DISCUSSION: The KORINNA study will contribute to the evidence regarding the effectiveness of case management programmes in aged people with MI. The results can be an important basis for clinicians, administrators and health policy makers to decide on the provision of high-quality care to older patients with CHD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN0289374

Will forest dynamics continue to accelerate throughout the 21st century in the Northern Alps?

Observational evidence suggests that forests in the Northern Alps are changing at an increasing rate as a consequence of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear whether the acceleration of forest change will continue in the future, or whether downregulating feedbacks will eventually decouple forest dynamics from climate change. Here we studied future forest dynamics at Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany by means of a process-based forest landscape model, simulating an ensemble of 22 climate projections until the end of the 21st century. Our objectives were (i) to assess whether the observed acceleration of forest dynamics will continue in the future, (ii) to analyze how uncertainty in future climate translates to variation in future forest disturbance, structure, and composition, and (iii) to determine the main drivers of future forest dynamics. We found that forest dynamics continue to accelerate in the coming decades, with a trend towards denser, structurally more complex and more species rich forests. However, changes in forest structure leveled off in the second half of the 21st century regardless of climate scenario. In contrast, climate scenarios caused trajectories of tree species change to diverge in the second half of the 21st century, with stabilization under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios and accelerated loss of conifers under RCP 8.5. Disturbance projections were 3 to 20 times more variable than future climate, whereas projected future forest structure and composition varied considerably less than climate. Indirect effects of climate change via alterations of the disturbance regime had a stronger impact on future forest dynamics than direct effects. Our findings suggest that dampening feedbacks within forest dynamics will decelerate forest change in the second half of the 21st century. However, warming beyond the levels projected under RCP 4.5 might profoundly alter future forest disturbance and composition, challenging conservation efforts and ecosystem service supply. --Raw simulation outputs are extensive in size and can be requested from the corresponding author, Dominik Thom.Funding provided by: European Research CouncilCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781Award Number: 101001905Funding provided by: Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer ProtectionCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010219Award Number: StMUV TKP01KPB-66747The data is based on simulations of Berchtesgaden National Park using iLand (https://iland-model.org/). Simulations include 22 climate change projections à 20 replicates from year 2020 - 2100. Presented here is the analysis of iLand outputs

Arthropod dark taxa provide new insights into diversity responses to bark beetle infestations

Natural disturbances are increasing around the globe, also impacting protected areas. Although previous studies have indicated that natural disturbances result in mainly positive effects on biodiversity, these analyses mostly focused on a few well established taxonomic groups, and thus uncertainty remains regarding the comprehensive impact of natural disturbances on biodiversity. Using Malaise traps and meta-barcoding, we studied a broad range of arthropod taxa, including dark and cryptic taxa, along a gradient of bark beetle disturbance severities in five European national parks. We identified order-level community thresholds of disturbance severity and classified barcode index numbers (BINs; a cluster system for DNA sequences, where each cluster corresponds to a species) as negative or positive disturbance indicators. Negative indicator BINs decreased above thresholds of low to medium disturbance severity (20%-30% of trees killed), whereas positive indicator BINs benefited from high disturbance severity (76%-98%). BINs allocated to a species name contained nearly as many positive as negative disturbance indicators, but dark and cryptic taxa, particularly Diptera and Hymenoptera in our data, contained higher numbers of negative disturbance indicator BINs. Analyses of changes in the richness of BINs showed variable responses of arthropods to disturbance severity at lower taxonomic levels, whereas no significant signal was detected at the order level due to the compensatory responses of the underlying taxa. We conclude that the analyses of dark taxa can offer new insights into biodiversity responses to disturbances. Our results suggest considerable potential for forest management to foster arthropod diversity, for example by maintaining both closed-canopy forests (>70% cover) and open forests (<30% cover) on the landscape

Tree defence and bark beetles in a drying world: carbon partitioning, functioning and modelling.

Drought has promoted large-scale, insect-induced tree mortality in recent years, with severe consequences for ecosystem function, atmospheric processes, sustainable resources and global biogeochemical cycles. However, the physiological linkages among drought, tree defences, and insect outbreaks are still uncertain, hindering our ability to accurately predict tree mortality under on-going climate change. Here we propose an interdisciplinary research agenda for addressing these crucial knowledge gaps. Our framework includes field manipulations, laboratory experiments, and modelling of insect and vegetation dynamics, and focuses on how drought affects interactions between conifer trees and bark beetles. We build upon existing theory and examine several key assumptions: (1) there is a trade-off in tree carbon investment between primary and secondary metabolites (e.g. growth vs defence); (2) secondary metabolites are one of the main component of tree defence against bark beetles and associated microbes; and (3) implementing conifer-bark beetle interactions in current models improves predictions of forest disturbance in a changing climate. Our framework provides guidance for addressing a major shortcoming in current implementations of large-scale vegetation models, the under-representation of insect-induced tree mortality

Multi-scale Drivers of Spatial Variation in Old-Growth Forest Carbon Density Disentangled with Lidar and an Individual-Based Landscape Model

Forest ecosystems are the most important terrestrial carbon (C) storage globally, and presently mitigate anthropogenic climate change by acting as a large and persistent sink for atmospheric CO₂. Yet, forest C density varies greatly in space, both globally and at stand and landscape levels. Understanding the multi-scale drivers of this variation is a prerequisite for robust and effective climate change mitigation in ecosystem management. Here, we used airborne light detection and ranging (Lidar) and a novel high-resolution simulation model of landscape dynamics (iLand) to identify the drivers of variation in C density for an old-growth forest landscape in Oregon, USA. With total ecosystem C in excess of 1 Gt ha⁻¹ these ecosystems are among the most C-rich globally. Our findings revealed considerable spatial variability in stand-level C density across the landscape. Notwithstanding the distinct environmental gradients in our mountainous study area only 55.3% of this variation was explained by environmental drivers, with radiation and soil physical properties having a stronger influence than temperature and precipitation. The remaining variation in C stocks was largely attributable to emerging properties of stand dynamics (that is, stand structure and composition). Not only were density- and size-related indicators positively associated with C stocks but also diversity in composition and structure, documenting a close link between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We conclude that the complexity of old-growth forests contributes to their sustained high C levels, a finding that is relevant to managing forests for climate change mitigation.Keywords: old-growth forests, functional diversity, iLand, forest carbon storage, forest stand dynamics, ecosystem structure and functioning, individual-based modeling, airborne Lidar, climate change mitigationKeywords: old-growth forests, functional diversity, iLand, forest carbon storage, forest stand dynamics, ecosystem structure and functioning, individual-based modeling, airborne Lidar, climate change mitigatio

Influence of Canopy Disturbances on Runoff and Landslide Disposition after Heavy Rainfall Events

As protective forests have a major control function on runoff and erosion, they directly affect the risk from hydrogeomorphic processes such as sediment transport processes or debris flows. In this context, future scenarios of climate-related canopy disturbances and their influence on the protective effect remain, however, an unsolved problem. With the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand, an ensemble of forest landscape simulations was carried out and the effects of future changes in natural disturbance regimes were evaluated. To determine peak runoff, hydrological simulations have been conducted, using the conceptual hydrological model ZEMOKOST as well as the deterministic model GEOtop. Effects of forest disturbances on hillslope stability were investigated, based on a modified Coulomb landslide model. Our results suggest no influence of the disturbance regime on the runoff. The climate-related increase in the frequency of disturbances is not reflected in increased runoff during the period under consideration. Contrary, slope stability analyses indicate that the availability of shallow landslides in steep forested torrent catchments might be decreased by the occurrence of disturbances – especially for a warm and dry climate projection. Canopy disturbances seem to accelerate the adaptation of tree species to future climate conditions, which is likely to be accompanied by a change in root systems away from flat roots that currently predominate in torrential catchments. In terms of managing the protective effect of forests against shallow landslides, such natural disturbances can thus be considered as positive interventions in the existing forest ecosystem by promoting natural succession